The reports from Capitol Hill suggest that barring some shocking new incident or revelation in the next ten days, Joe Biden will remain the Democratic nominee in November. Even before his debate with Donald Trump revealed the extent of his frailty, I thought the issue of his age (which was not about his numerical age, but his lack of a commanding public presence) would hamper his candidacy. But voters are not going to re-elect the Joe Biden who appeared in the debate and who seemed incapable of meeting the enormous demands of the presidency.
Biden will get hardcore Democratic votes, and the votes of Americans who believe Trump's election would lead inexorably toward a fascist America, but he is not going to get the votes of many erstwhile Democrats among minorities and the young and among voters who describe themselves as "independents." My estimate is that he would lose the electoral college by as much as 354 to 184. That would include all the swing states as well as Minnesota, Virginia, New Hampshire, and New Jersey. I also expect that low turnout among potential Democratic voters would bring down some Democratic senate candidates who might otherwise have won and ensure that the Republicans keep the House. These include Democrats in Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Montana.
I don't usually make predictions like this, and when I have, I have sometimes been very wrong. But by doing so, I am making a last effort to convince Democrats in Congress and the White House officials who have concealed Biden's infirmities to reconsider their support for him as the Democratic nominee. One can argue that Kamala Harris and the other alternatives to Biden would also lose to Trump. That may be true, but they would give him a better race and not put Senate and House candidates in as grave jeopardy.
Their candidacy would also remove the stain on the integrity of the Democratic Party that the concealment of Biden's frailty has created. It is not just politically suicidal to run Biden for the presidency in November. It is morally irresponsible to field a candidate for president who doesn't seem up to the job. Like the Republicans who after January sixth refused to impeach Trump, the Democrats would be displaying a disrespect for the institution of the presidency and for the American electorate.
Absolutely true. Biden must not run. Otherwise his good record on domestic issues, if not the Israeli war, will be erased by his loss to Trump and the onset of fascism.
Grim but solid.